Trip won't determine what we may already know about the Maple Leafs

Story by Terry Koshan

The easy way to describe the Maple Leafs’ four-game trip — and really, the team’s six games before the National Hockey League all-star break — would be to say it could make or break the season for the club.


That’s not true.


We’re talking about the start of the second half for the Leafs, not a stretch of hockey in late March or early April that could determine whether the club makes the playoffs.


Toronto has 41 games remaining and, when the players wake up in frigid Edmonton on Tuesday, the team still will be in third place in the Atlantic Division with 50 points.

As much as the recent play of the Leafs is concerning, they’re on pace for 100 points, a final total that should be more than enough to earn a playoff spot.


There’s no taking away from the fact that the trip, in order, to Edmonton, Calgary, Vancouver and Seattle is daunting. And if you’re the Leafs, no matter how the trip unfolds, try not to think of what awaits once it’s done: A home-and-home set with the Winnipeg Jets before the players scatter for the all-star break and Auston Matthews, William Nylander, Mitch Marner and Morgan Rielly begin to gear up for the festivities at Scotiabank Arena.


First up are the Oilers. At a glance, their 10-game winning streak is impressive; take a closer look, and it’s an Edmonton team that has won eight of those games on the road, seven in regulation and allowed more than two goals in two of them — the first two.


During a run that started on Dec. 21 in New Jersey with a 6-3 win against the Devils, the Oilers have outscored the opposition 40-17. Connor McDavid has 16 points during the streak while Zach Hyman has 12 and Leon Draisaitl has 11.


Then it’s down Highway 2 to Calgary and any idea that the Flames might be an easier out doesn’t hold water. The Flames enter their home game on Tuesday against Arizona with six wins in eight games as they fight for a wild-card spot in the Western Conference.


The Vancouver Canucks are in first place overall in the NHL and had won five in a row before a shootout loss to Columbus on Monday, which ended a seven-game road trip. We don’t imagine they will be hospitable hosts for the Leafs on Saturday.


And the trip conclusion comes Sunday in Seattle against a Kraken group that had won nine game in a row before losing to the Pittsburgh Penguins yesterday.


All this awaits the Leafs, who have lost three in a row.


“This is something we have been through before and bounced back and put together a good stretch, which last time for us started on the road,” coach Sheldon Keefe said on Sunday after the 4-2 loss against Detroit. “It’s a difficult trip. Some really good teams that are playing very well. We have to dust ourselves off and be ready.”


The Leafs had lost three in a row when they started a three-game swing through California with a shutout against the Los Angeles Kings on Jan. 2.


They won their next three games versus lesser opponents in the Anaheim Ducks and San Jose Sharks before this skid started last Thursday with an overtime loss on Long Island against the Islanders.


That summed up the Leafs in the first half of 2023-24: You’re not sure what you’re going to get.


When they win soundly, we tend to believe they’ve figured it out and should be victorious more often than not in their remaining games. When they lose like they have recently, giving up leads in all three games, we wonder whether a playoff spot is ironclad, considering the tightness in the Atlantic Division. The Red Wings and Tampa Bay Lightning each are a point behind Toronto, though the Leafs have multiple games in hand on both.


Are we getting to the point where we might have to accept that his what the Leafs are? And if the Leafs win just once or twice in the next six games, would a coaching change make a difference?


Would, say, a promotion of Guy Boucher to head coach turn the Leafs into Stanley Cup contenders? Would Boucher have kept Timothy Liljegren from giving the puck away in the third period on Sunday, leading to Detroit’s winning goal? Or how about when Jake McCabe gave the puck to Dylan Larkin before the Wings’ first goal?


There’s a reason why general manager Brad Treliving has been trying to make significant changes to the defence corps since he took over from the fired Kyle Dubas last spring.


What we can say about this trip — we’re unlikely to learn anything about the Leafs that we don’t already know.


If you want to ease your frustration a bit, keep in mind that the Leafs have beaten better teams this season — Vancouver, Dallas, the New York Rangers and Florida Panthers among them. No results either way on the trip should come as a surprise.


And, as Keefe said on Sunday morning, there is a lot of hockey left.

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